It is official. Two months and a half after I claimed all these “last chance” european summits would amount to nothing really important and would not change the course of the present events, France lost its “sacred” triple A ratings. Given that many people explained how unreliable these rating agencies are -after all the very same agencies did claim Greece had solid finances and Goldman Sachs was doing things right four years ago- it should not be a serious thing. Yet, the consequences of the loss of the AAA rating will be real, and will probably have a snowballing effect in Europe (another one).
I am not explaining that France is not an indebted country. In fact, very few european countries can claim they have clean public debts, and I won’t even mention the US debt. But the debt has been piling up in France and elsewhere since 30 years, thanks to a rather twisted amount of policies -cutting public spending, worsening economic conditions and lowering salaries while shoving more and more money to the top of the pyramid combined with reducing the amount of taxes collected, most of the time in favour of the wealthiest- and the beginning of the crisis in 2008 that prompted governments to offer bags of money to the banks and then having the same rating agencies who were claiming everything was fine tell the world the same governments were broke.
It is easy to see that governments were trapped in what could look like a pincer movement; but then there are pundits who might explain the whole unfolding of the events was “irrational” and happened “on the spur of the moment”. I rather see it as a whole set of rational decisions that were taken at some level while some levels down it appeared as some sort of unavoidable outcome from random, short term decisions. But whether one thinks of all this as a process or as an accident the issue we face today remains the same.
We have a huge national debt (granted, way smaller than anything the US have, even compared in proportion) that is fixable, but we also have governments who rush to do whatever they think the “Market” will like. More often than not, it means that the little people and the ever shrinking middle class must be punished . For what, we don’t really know, but the real question should rather be instead of whom . Because if there’s a categoy of people and entities who continue their “economic growth” in these times of crisis, that would be some of the wealthiest people in our nation and abroad. You may call them the 1%. You may call them the “Elite”. You may call them otherwise, but it does not really matter at this stage. What’s important to realize is the power and influence of money that makes up the incentive for governments to dismantle public services and to make life harder for the rest of the population. What is also important to realize, and what is much less discussed is how some entities and people actuall benefit from the crisis.
Part of the “reforms” to “reimburse the debt” (which turns out to be a dubious concept itself as France, since 1973 cannot devaluate its money just like any other country outside the euro-zone) always (why?) involve selling off entire, profitable parts of public service. Such a pawning operation never benefits the people, but always benefits a few. It is often seent that the same people who benefit from this sale by taking control of the new privatized structure are powerful, and part of the people who usually advise the same politicians who keep on explaining that we must make more efforts to “repay the debt”, the debt that we could in fact manage much better, but that some people don’t want us to, as they might lose money in this. So while the republic itself loses power, stops its people from benefiting from social security and other public services, it graciously offers to a selected few the ability to monetize these services. I always wondered why, if we really had to sell these services, the government did not auction this to its very own people . For instance, as public service XYZ gets privatized it is sold to thousands or even millions of people (each one putting anywhere between 10 euros and 100 euros) , and therefore would remain in the public trust. That was a common operation during the XXth century, but guess what, it seems that it does not please some very few people with a lot of influence. (I’m sure there’s a perfectly rational explanation on why simple people cannot own such a structure and that it must be pawned off to major corporations).
So what did France lose by losing AAA? In fact, not much, as the dices had already been thrown a while ago. A nice, velvety red curtain just fell of this past week, that’s all; and now things will become officially more difficult for most of us.
Happy New Year everyone…
What you call “debt” are the “assets” of others. That is the most fascinating aspect of it. And AAA state bonds are usually a zero line for domestic investment decisions. Anyway, I believe Mr. Barnier needs to get more exposure than Merkozy and we need to get an ordoliberal renaissance, which puts in a very Hegelian sense an end to the beneficial wrecking of state powers during the last decade. Carrot and stick, you can’t have one without the other. And of course the need to fix the European Union democratic deficit. The situation looks interesting and we should enbrace the opportunities. Oh, and would DSK become the French Mario Monti?
DSK is out of the game anyway. I am curious on the Hegelian outcome you mention; could you be more specific?
> “but we also have governments who rush to do whatever they think the “Market” will like.”
That may be true, but it is impossible for the government to know what the market will like. The market is the farthest thing from a homogenous entity whose will you can predict and appease. When politicians talk about supporting the free market, and act on this, it is inevitable they are only doing things that benefit some and harm others. It is precisely why I am against all government involvement in the market. It is always harmful towards someone.
Privatization the way it’s typically done is indeed problematic though. Government cannot really own anything legitimately, and in the market it has an unfair advantage that comes from being able to use force to compel people to pay for their often lackluster services. So when you see this organization selling off its stuff you cannot expect it to be a fair process with good results. It is better to view all government property and businesses as “unowned”.
Anyway, IMO, EU is on the brink of collapse. It is the new Soviet Union, and from the perspective of croatians, even the new Yugoslavia, but politicians are literally bribed into herding their countries into it (just as Croatia is being right now). It’s not gonna end well, but perhaps the sooner it happens the more chance there is for it to be remotely peaceful.
All the best to you in the new year!
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